CLIMATE CHANGE

7.0 INDIA'S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

India has experienced a dramatic growth in fossil fuel CO2 emissions, and the data compiled by various agencies shows an increase of nearly 5.9% since 1950. At present, India is rated as the 6th largest contributor of CO2 emissions and China the 2nd. However, our per capita CO2 of 0.93t per annum is well below the world average of 3.87t per annum. Fossil fuel emissions in India continue to result largely from coal burning with India being the largest producer of coal in the world. India is highly vulnerable to climate change as its economy is heavily reliant on climate sensitive sectors like agriculture and forestry. The vast low lying and densely populated coastline is susceptible to rise in sea level.

The energy sector is the largest contributor of carbon dioxide emissions in India. The national inventory of greenhouse gases under ALGAS (Asia-Least Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy) project (funded by the Asian Development Bank, Global Environment Facility and United Nations Development Program) indicates that 55% of the total national emissions come from energy sector. These include emissions from road transport, burning of traditional bio-mass fuels, coal mining, and fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas. Agriculture sector constitutes the next major contributor, accounting for nearly 34%. The emissions under this sector include those from enteric fermentation in domestic animals, manure management, rice cultivation, and burning of agriculture residues. Emissions from Industrial sector mainly came from cement production. India is the fourth largest producer of cement after China, Japan and the United States. The ALGAS study presents the latest set of projections of greenhouse gas emissions from India.

The Indian Cement Industry with an annual production of 99 million metric tonne (mmt) of cement contributes about 89 mmt of CO2 emission @ 0.9 mt of CO2/mt of cement produced. A comparative CO2 emission levels in some countries are given below:

Table 3.0 : CO2 emissions/mt of Cement Production

Country

CO2 emission(mmt)

Cement Production (mmt)

CO2/mt of Cement

Japan

37.71

83.47

0.45

USA

41.07

85

0.47

China

249.48

573

0.43

India

89

99

0.90

mt = metric tonne, mmt = million metric tonne
[Source: Planning Commission, Govt. of India, Report of the Working Group on Cement Industry, 2002].

The basic reason for lower CO2 emission per tonne of cement in Japan and European countries is the prominence of blended cements. CO2 is predominantly generated during clinker stage and therefore production of higher tonnage of cement (through blended cement) from same quantity of clinker would reduce the CO2/tonne of cement. The Report of the Working Group on Cement Industry, commissioned by the Planning Commission, suggests a reduction of CO2 emission level in the next five years (2002-2007) to about 80 mmt out of the projected cement production of 158.56 mmt (i.e CO2 emission of 0.50/ mt of cement) by adopting the following measures :

Increased production of blended cements and promotion of its use in large quantities.
Optimising the pyro-processing system and avennues for reduction in electrical power consumption.
Increased afforestation and sink potential for CO2.
Recovery of waste heat for cogeneration of power.
Optimising particle size distribution of fine coal.
Use of Alternate fuel(Oil, gas)/Waste derived fuel.
Increased use of marginal grade limestone.
Manufacture of reactive belite cement.

It is now expected that going by the present trend, carbon dioxide emissions from energy sector for India may be ten times greater than the 1990 level, by the year 2010. Though relatively small in magnitude, forestry and land use emissions of methane are also expected to grow rapidly. On the other hand, agricultural emissions of methane accounting for 32% of the present global warming potential, are expected to grow slowly.

Table 4.0: India's Greenhouse Gas Inventory for 1990 (Gg)

Greenhous gas sources and Sinks

CO2 emissions

CO2

removals

CH4

N2 O

NOx

CO

CO2 equivalent (CO2+CH4 +N2O)

I. Energy

 

A. Fuel combustion

508,600

      

1.Energy and transformation industries

    

2,684d

3,493d

508,600

2. Biomass burning

300,460a

 

1,579

11

400

11,492

36,569

B. Fugitive emissions from fuels

 

1. Solid fuels

  

330

   

6,930

2. Oil and natural gas

  

626

   

13,146

Total emissions from energy sector (fuel combustion + fugitive)

508,600

 

2,535

11

3,084

14,965

565,245

II. Industrial processes

24,200

  

1

  

24,510

III. solvent and other products

       

IV. Agriculture

 

A. Enteric fermentation

  

7,563

   

158,823

B. Manure management

  

905

   

19005

C. rice cultivation

  

4,070b

   

85,470

D. Agricultural soils

   

240

  

74,400

E. Prescribed burning of Savannas

 

F. Field burning of agricultural

  

116

3

109

3,038

3,366

Total emissions from agricultural sources

  

12,654

243

109

3,038

341,064

V.Land use change and forestry

       

A. Change in forests and other woody biomass stock

 

-6,171

    

-6,171

B. Forests and grassland conversion

52,385

     

52,385

C. Abandonment of managed lands

 

-44729

    

-44,729

Total emissions from land use change and forestry sector

52,385

-50900

    

1,485

VI. Waste

 

A. Solid waste disposal on land

  

334

   

7,014

B. Domestic and commercial wastewater

  

49

   

1,029

C. Industrial wastewater

  

2,905

   

61,005

D. Other waste

       

Total emissions from waste

  

3,288

   

69,048

Total national emissions and removals

585,185

50,900

18,477

255

3,193

18,003

1,001,352

a. CO2 emissions from biomass burning are not included in the national totals.
b. CH4 emissions according to IPCC 1996 methodology
c. CO2 equivalents are based on global warming potentials (GWPs) of 21 for CH4
and310 for N2O. NOx and CO are not included, since GWPs have not been developed
for these gases. Bunker fuel emissions are not included in the national total.
d. NOx and CO emissions are computed for the transport sector.

[Source: Asia least-cost Greenhouse gas abatement strategy, Asian Development Bank]

Table 5.0 : Global total carbon emissions by region, reference case, [1990-2015]

Region/Country

Past

Projections

Average annual percent change, 1995-2015

Period þ

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

 

Industrialized

Million metric tonnes

North America

1,561

1,663

1,8261

1,956

2,066

2,170

1.3

United States

1,337

1,424

1,543

1,638

1,721

1,798

1.2

Canada

137

143

160

172

182

192

1.5

Mexico

87

97

123

146

163

180

3.1

Western Europe

1,016

1,014

1,081

1,147

1,208

1,279

1.2

Industrialized Asia

408

473

514

553

593

625

1.4

Japan

308

361

401

432

466

492

1.6

Australasia

100

112

114

121

127

133

0.8

Total Industrialized

2,985

3,151

3,421

3,656

3,868

4,074

1.3

 

EE/FSU (European Union/Former Soviet Union)

Former Soviet Union

1,029

653

733

802

872

933

1.8

Eastern Europe

309

240

278

293

306

318

1.4

Total EE/FSU

1,339

893

1,012

1,095

1,178

1,251

1.7

Developing Countries

 

China

625

821

1,031

1,257

1,523

1,838

4.1

India

159

221

276

350

421

490

4.0

Other Asia

307

432

557

688

792

904

3.8

Middle East

203

254

265

291

315

344

1.5

Africa

205

248

267

294

322

352

1.8

Central & South America

189

220

263

319

382

452

3.7

Total Developing Countries

1,687

2,197

2,660

3,199

3,755

4,379

3.5

Total World

6,012

6,241

7,093

7,950

8,800

9,704

2.2

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual,1995; Annual Energy Outlook 1997.